United States and Iran halt strikes for a second day as talks regain ground

The United States and Iran refrained from attacking each other for a second consecutive day on Sunday, interrupting the most intense phase of fighting since their interim agreement began to unravel. The Pentagon suspended its bombing campaign late on Friday after 13 straight nights of US airstrikes. Iran, which had answered the raids with attacks on American interests and host countries in the region, also held fire through the weekend.

The quiet is conditional. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would continue to refrain from attacks only for as long as Washington did the same. No armistice has been signed, neither side has renounced force, and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.

A military pause without a political settlement

The Trump administration presents the decision as an opening for diplomacy. Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said contacts involving Iran, Oman and American negotiators were continuing from the technical level to senior officials.

“He’s giving talks some space. He’s giving it a little bit of room.”

Mike Waltz, US ambassador to the United Nations, speaking about President Donald Trump on Fox News Sunday

That explanation does not settle why the strikes stopped. The New York Times and Reuters, citing American officials, reported that military advisers had raised concerns about the strain on US munitions, including interceptor missiles used to protect bases in the Middle East. Reuters also reported that the campaign had largely exhausted its preselected targets. Waltz disputed the suggestion of an immediate shortage and said the military had everything required to continue the campaign.

The distinction matters. A pause chosen to support negotiations could last while diplomacy advances; an operational pause could end as soon as targets or weapons are available. Trump has continued to reserve the option of a larger attack. Tehran, for its part, has offered reciprocity rather than an unconditional commitment.

The dispute over Hormuz remains the hinge

The wider war began on 28 February with US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Its latest escalation has centred on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil normally travels. Iran has sought control over routes and procedures in the waterway, while Washington has supported a southern corridor closer to Oman and used force against Iranian coastal defences.

An Omani delegation held several rounds of technical discussions in Tehran on Friday and Saturday. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said progress had been made and talks were continuing. The negotiations concern the management of safe shipping, the division of traffic between possible routes and the authority Iran would exercise over vessels passing through the strait.

Those discussions could provide a route back to the 60-day interim framework agreed in mid-June. That arrangement was intended to create time for a broader settlement, but renewed attacks have left it badly damaged. The central political questions, including the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, have not been resolved. Nor has the weekend lull restored normal shipping: the American blockade remains, and market participants still treat the strait as an impaired route.

Oil prices register relief, not confidence

Brent crude fell by about 5% in early Monday trading as dealers reduced the immediate risk premium attached to a new round of strikes. The benchmark had briefly moved above $100 a barrel last week. The reversal is substantial, but it does not mean traders expect an enduring peace. Oil remains sensitive to any attack on shipping, coastal installations or US bases.

The reprieve matters in Europe, and particularly in Luxembourg. Eurostat put Luxembourg’s energy-import dependency at 91% in 2024, the second-highest rate in the European Union. STATEC explicitly treats Brent movements as a factor influencing domestic petrol, diesel and heating-oil prices. A lower crude price can therefore ease pressure on household costs and inflation, though one trading session does not determine the next price at the pump.

The durability of the pause now rests on three tests:

• whether Washington and Tehran continue to withhold fire when the next maritime incident occurs;
• whether Oman can turn technical discussions into workable and mutually accepted navigation rules;
• whether the two governments return to negotiations on the nuclear programme and a final end to the war.

For now, the absence of strikes is a meaningful change after 13 nights of escalation. It is not yet a ceasefire, still less a peace agreement. The oil market’s rapid fall captures both sides of the moment: the cost of immediate danger has declined, while the price of unresolved risk remains.