Finance
Commodities
From shortage to glut: how the cocoa boom turned into a West African crisis
Cocoa nearly tripled to a record above $12,000 a tonne in December 2024, then crashed to about $3,100 by early 2026 as the market swung from deep deficit to a 300,000-400,000-tonne surplus. Better West African weather lifted output just as chocolate-makers cut bar sizes and substituted cocoa butter, destroying demand. Now Ivory Coast and Ghana, together nearly 70% of world supply, cannot sell their beans. This explainer unpacks the cycle, the human cost and what to watch.